U.S. stocks today finished unchanged on Aug. 18, 2025, as investors skirted two big events: the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is to speak at the conference, and earnings reports from big-box stores such as Walmart, Target, and Home Depot later this week.

Trading on the day was without conviction, with Wall Street largely in holding mode. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34.30 points, or 0.08%, to 44,911.82. The S&P 500 fell 65 points, or 0.01%, to 6,449.15, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.79 points, or 0.03%, to 21,629.77. In the meantime, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.339%, reflecting continued uncertainty in the bond markets.

Investors Turn to Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

The spotlight this week is firmly on Jerome Powell's address next week at Jackson Hole, a biennial gathering of global central bankers and finance ministers. Markets are holding their breath for any signal of the Fed's direction for interest rates, particularly if the central bank is poised to shift towards easing.

Following a milder July inflation reading, most traders bet the Fed would be willing to cut in September. The CME FedWatch tracker showed chances of a cut at more than 90% in the instant following the data release. Those probabilities have since eased to just more than 83% as Fed officials have become more guarded.

Michael Feroli, the J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist, said that Powell would most likely acknowledge the softer July jobs report but avoid absolutely guaranteeing a September cut. "With more employment data ahead, Powell will likely keep his words in equilibrium rather than drive markets too aggressively," Feroli wrote.

US Stocks Today Reflect Fed Nervousness

The absence of clear policy direction from policymakers has seen U.S. stocks today trading in narrow ranges. Investors understand that the Fed is tiptoeing—between threats of inflation and hints of a slowing labor market. Meanwhile, Wall Street seems to be holding out for Powell to make a statement.

On top of the uncertainty, reports of the most recent Fed policy meeting are due to be published mid-week. Of significance, Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented against leaving rates at 4.25%-4.50% in July. It was the first double dissent since 1993, and it highlighted fractiousness at the central bank.

Retail Earnings in Focus

One of the major drivers of U.S. stocks today is the upcoming round of retail earnings. Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's are all announcing results, giving investors some idea of consumer spending habits in the wake of tariffs and persistent inflation concerns.

Through this earnings season to date, the figures have been encouraging. Of more than 92% of S&P 500 firms that have reported, close to 82% of them have topped expectations, FactSet says.

But recent economic indicators tell a mixed story. A July report on retail sales indicated robust consumer spending, but surveys of sentiment indicated Americans growing anxious about inflation and the economy in general. The performance of these chain retailers will be watched closely as a gauge of consumer health as the fall season approaches.

Prospects

The next couple of days can establish the trend for markets through September. If Powell signals the Fed is leaning to cut rates, stocks can rally on expectations of cheaper borrowing spurring growth. If, however, his speech reads out patience and caution, investors can ready themselves for more volatility.

For now, U.S. stocks today are in no hurry, with Wall Street looking to policymakers and corporate America for a lead. With world economic leaders gathering in Jackson Hole and household retail giants announcing results, the week ahead is going to be determinative for markets.